Coverage: 2024 has seven Emerson state polls and two national polls (Marist/Emerson). 2020 has one national Emerson poll. These are selected final published waves from these releases, not all polls or a representative sample.
New explanation and source packet: human editorial review pending. No earlier approval carries over to this lab.
7 polls in 7 distinct areas. National and state polls are summarized separately.
Error in the D–R margin
Error = poll D–R margin minus official D–R margin, in percentage points. A positive value means the margin was too favorable to the Democrat; a negative value means it was too favorable to the Republican.
Each poll receives equal weight in the summaries. The selection is small and errors may be dependent; these figures do not rank pollsters or estimate 2026 uncertainty.
Polls and official results
Scroll the table sideways to see shares, vote counts and margins.
| Area / pollster | Fieldwork / sample | Poll D / R | Result D / R | Poll / result margin (points) | Error (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArizonaEmerson College · 2024 | October 30–November 2, 2024n=900 · publisher voter modelCredibility interval: ±3.20 points per candidate share · 95% | 48% / 50%Kamala Harris / Donald Trump | 46.69% / 52.22%1,582,860 / 1,770,242 votes | -2.00 / -5.53 | +3.53 |
| GeorgiaEmerson College · 2024 | October 30–November 2, 2024n=800 · publisher voter modelCredibility interval: ±3.40 points per candidate share · 95% | 49% / 50%Kamala Harris / Donald Trump | 48.53% / 50.72%2,548,017 / 2,663,117 votes | -1.00 / -2.19 | +1.19 |
| MichiganEmerson College · 2024 | October 30–November 2, 2024n=790 · publisher voter modelCredibility interval: ±3.40 points per candidate share · 95% | 50% / 48%Kamala Harris / Donald Trump | 48.31% / 49.73%2,736,533 / 2,816,636 votes | +2.00 / -1.41 | +3.41 |
| NevadaEmerson College · 2024 | October 30–November 2, 2024n=840 · publisher voter modelCredibility interval: ±3.30 points per candidate share · 95% | 48% / 48%Kamala Harris / Donald Trump | 47.49% / 50.59%705,197 / 751,205 votes | 0.00 / -3.10 | +3.10 |
| North CarolinaEmerson College · 2024 | October 30–November 2, 2024n=860 · publisher voter modelCredibility interval: ±3.30 points per candidate share · 95% | 48% / 49%Kamala Harris / Donald Trump | 47.65% / 50.86%2,715,375 / 2,898,423 votes | -1.00 / -3.21 | +2.21 |
| PennsylvaniaEmerson College · 2024 | October 30–November 2, 2024n=1,000 · publisher voter modelCredibility interval: ±3.00 points per candidate share · 95% | 48% / 49%Kamala Harris / Donald Trump | 48.49% / 50.20%3,423,042 / 3,543,308 votes | -1.00 / -1.70 | +0.70 |
| WisconsinEmerson College · 2024 | October 30–November 2, 2024n=800 · publisher voter modelCredibility interval: ±3.40 points per candidate share · 95% | 49% / 49%Kamala Harris / Donald Trump | 48.74% / 49.60%1,668,229 / 1,697,626 votes | 0.00 / -0.86 | +0.86 |
The state release describes a weighted voter model but does not explicitly label it LV/RV. That classification is not assumed here.
D = Democratic candidate; R = Republican candidate. Published poll shares are rounded and are not normalized to D/R alone. Official shares use all votes in the FEC table, including other candidates and reported residual categories. Undecided responses are not allocated. Published intervals concern a candidate share, not the D–R margin or total election polling error. The gap also includes any change after fieldwork and published rounding; this comparison does not identify its causes.
Results: FEC official compilation from state election offices. Separate certification dates are not imported. These are national or state popular votes, not Electoral College votes, congressional seats or a live feed.